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Georgian Triangle Real Estate Market Report December 2015

Posted by Kim Burton on December 15, 2015
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Overview: New Annual Sales Mark Set With Another Record Month

After being about $1.5 million short at the end of October, November’s sales blew past 2014’s Georgian Triangle MLS annual record of $705,564,088, finishing the month with $758,713,920. Not only that, but November’s sales themselves, at $55,112,227, were the best ever for the month, up a big 15.3% over last November’s previous record sales of $47,800,395.

So after a sales year such as we’ve enjoyed in this beautiful area we live in, two questions beg asking. First, will December be yet another record-breaker, thus completing a perfect twelve monthly records for 2015? And second, will we pass $800,000,000 for the year? Regarding the latter, if we do it’ll mean that the area’s sales topped $600,000,000 for the first time in 2013, $700,000,000 for the first time in 2014 and … well, we wouldn’t want to jinx things would we?


Suffice to say, though, that people must really like this place, a point perhaps best borne out by a combination of facts that we’ve been drawing attention to all year: 2015’s sales records have come despite there being far fewer homes on the market than usual during the year. Specifically, while 2015’s sales are up 20.3% and 36% over 2014’s and 2013’s respectively, 2015’s total listings of 4180 are down 15.3% from 2014’s and 2013’s figures of 4937 and 4938.

In this regard, as Graph 2 shows 2015’s monthly sales-to-listings ratios have been well above 2014’s all year. Similarly, the year-to-date ratio of 54.1% is way above the area’s year-in-year- out, annual average of 30%-40%. All this compels us to say, as we have throughout 2015, that the demand for listings still greatly exceeds the supply in the Georgian Triangle as a whole.


The Market In Detail

That said, as Table 1 shows (see next page), 2015’s record-breaking dollar figures are reflected in the unit sale details which, at 2261, are up 14.6% over 2014’s unit sales of 1973. As well, for the first time this year unit sales in all price ranges are up over 2014. 2015’s sales increases have been exceptional in the price ranges of $300K-to-$499K (up 33.1%), $500K-to-$799K (up 31.7%) and $1M-to-$1.499M (up 20.8%) respectively. Moreover, the $300K-$1.499M range is up a staggering 31.4% overall.


Taking a look now at the month-to-month sales volume and unit details, as Graphs 3 and 4 show 2015’s record-breaking pace has exceeded 2014’s previous record pace every month.


Lastly, having already noted how 2015’s unit sales-to-listings ratio is 35.3% higher than 2014’s we would like to draw attention to how the two years’ sales-to-expired-listings ratios compare.



As you can see in Graph 5, 2014’s sales are slightly less than its expired listings, with the sales- to-expired-listings ratio coming in at 91.2%. However, as Graph 6 shows, 2015’s sales are much higher than its expired listings, with the sales-to-expired-listings ratio actually at 152.6%! Such a market – in which 52.6% more listings have sold than expired – is, as we’ve repeatedly noted this year, unprecedented since the 1980’s according to Locations North’s long-time agents.

So what’s the takeaway?

Well, it’s the same one we’ve been delivering throughout 2015: it is indeed a very good time to be a home seller in the Georgian Triangle. Generally, prices are up nicely from 2014 and there is less competition among sellers, given that the 2015 listing inventory has been down every month from 2014, and down 15.3% year-to-date. Expired listings are down 31.6% from 2014. Lastly, the fact that we’ve seen one record-breaking month after another – with unit sales up 14.6%, dollar sales up 20.3%, and lots of multiple offers – means buyers are certainly buying.

Again, how long can it last? The tea leaves and crystal ball are as elusive as ever. Recalling the questions raised at the start of this Report, lets just see if December is another record month and 2015’s annual sales top $800,000,000. Still, it seems safe to say that if you’ve considered selling your home your chances of getting a good price in a timely manner are excellent. 

A Few More Numbers To Fill In The Picture

As they have throughout 2015, November’s main market metrics translate directly into nearly all the details of Single-Family Home Sales (Graph 7), and Sales by Property Type (Graph 8).

Regarding single-family homes, 2015’s year-to-date unit sales are up 9.9% from 2014. Each community is up except Clearview (down 1.4%) and Grey Highlands (down 22.6%), while high- volume Wasaga Beach (up 32.6%) has been responsible for most of the overall gains.

Lastly, 2015’s condo sales are up 7.9% over 2014’s, while vacant land sales are up 25.3%.


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